Jake Porter

Is it too early to make predictions for the Iowa Caucus?

It takes at least four things to win the Iowa Republican Caucus:
1. A strong campaign organization
2. A dedicated support base
3. Money to run statewide advertising
4. A message to win the Republican nomination

The only candidate that I can see with a strong Iowa organization, dedicated support base, and enough money is Congressman Ron Paul; however, the Congressman from Texas lacks the ability to pick up the social conservative vote which is critical to win the Iowa Caucus. That being said, as country singer and songwriter Tom T. Hall once wrote "It can sure get cold in Des Moines" and whoever has the organization that can get a strong base of supporters out in early January usually wins.

In my opinion, Perry is done. Cain lacks the organization to win the state. Gingrich will have a good showing. Bachman and Hunstman are also out far of the top tier and Santorum will pick up some of the Huckabee/Vander Plaats supporters, but still lose the state bad. Learning from 2008 loss in Iowa, I predict Romney will make a last minute push to win the state avoiding embarrassment if he loses for something he really didn't campaign for. Paul will surprise many.

So far here are my predictions for how the Iowa Caucus will end:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Ron Paul
3. Herman Cain
4. Newt Gingrich
5. Rick Perry
6. Rick Santorum
7. Michelle Bachman

I will update these predictions as we get closer to the Iowa Caucus.

Disclaimer: I left out New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson intentionally as I serve on his Iowa campaign staff and couldn't be fair in an assessment of a race with him in it. About 6 months ago I moved to Nebraska and am working as the Iowa Director for the Gary Johnson Presidential campaign.